Start a Forecasting Skills Coaching Community

1. 1

   Build a practice-based method

   Teach calibration, base rates, and updating through repeated scored predictions. Skill comes from practice, so build the practice loop first.

2. 2

   Create scored challenges

   Regular prediction questions with tracking and feedback so members see their calibration improve. Measurable progress is what keeps a community engaged.

3. 3

   Demonstrate the value free

   Public forecasts and reasoning breakdowns that show sharper thinking. Free proof of skill is the marketing.

4. 4

   Launch a paid community

   A monthly membership for the challenges, coaching, and discussion. Recurring membership is the revenue model.

5. 5

   Serve professional use cases

   Position forecasting as a decision skill for analysts, founders, and teams, not gambling. That framing raises the value and the price.

6. 6

   Add team and cohort tiers

   Company workshops and live cohorts for those who want structured training. Higher-touch tiers lift revenue per member.

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