How do I choose between two or three business ideas?
Answered by Unleash Your Ideas.
Score each idea 0 to 3 on four things
Paying customer in 90 days?
Speed to first dollar
Prior context in this space?
Your unfair advantage
Can you deliver v1 yourself?
No dependency to start
Still want this in 3 years?
Staying power
Answer
Score each on 4 things: (a) can you get a paying customer in 90 days, (b) do you have prior context in this space, (c) can you deliver the first version yourself, (d) do you want to still be doing this in 3 years. Highest total wins.
Quick Facts
Prior context in a space raises your odds sharply: founders with same-sector experience were about 125% more likely to build a top-growth company.
Source: Azoulay et al. (2020)
Getting a paying customer quickly tests for real demand and dodges the no-market-need failure behind about 42% of shutdowns.
Source: CB Insights
Only about half of new businesses reach five years, so choosing the idea you still want to run in three years matters for survival.
Source: U.S. BLS Business Employment Dynamics
Questions For You
Score each idea 0 to 3 on the four criteria and add them up. Which one actually wins on paper?
Are you talking yourself out of the highest-scoring idea for emotional reasons? Name them.
Which idea can reach a paying customer fastest, and does that change your ranking?
A Word of Inspiration
Having two or three ideas is a good problem, and you do not need to agonize over it. Score them honestly on speed to a customer, your context, your ability to deliver, and your three-year appetite, then trust the total. The point is not a perfect choice, it is a confident start, and any of your top ideas beats endless deliberation.
Try this today
Score each of your ideas from 0-3 on those four criteria. Add them up. Don't overthink the tiebreaker.
Sources & Citations
- Azoulay, Jones, Kim & Miranda (2020), Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship, American Economic Review: Insights
- CB Insights, The Top Reasons Startups Fail (analysis of startup post-mortems)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics (survival of private-sector establishments by opening year)
This resource is educational and does not constitute legal, tax, or financial advice. Consult qualified professionals for decisions specific to your situation.
More questions in Finding an Idea
How do I know if I even have a good business idea?
You don't.
Do I have to have a passion for what I do?
No.
What if I don't have any ideas at all?
Then you haven't been paying attention to your own friction.
Should I start a business in an industry I know or one I'm curious about?
Industry you know.
Is it too late to enter my industry?
Almost never.
How do I know if my idea is different enough from competitors?
It doesn't need to be different.